Home Prices Are Going Flat Nationwide. In Hernando County, They're Already Down 4.7%. Here's What That Means for You.

U.S. home prices rose just 1.4% over the past year, according to Cotality's national home price report released today, and Florida came in even softer at 0.8%. In Hernando County, the median sale price actually slipped 4.7% year over year to about $319,000 in July, even as the number of homes sold jumped nearly 11%.

That combination, softer prices with more sales, is the story of our market right now. Buyers in Spring Hill and Brooksville have more leverage than they've had in years, and sellers who price to today's numbers are still closing. Here is what's behind it and what to do about it.

Why are home prices flat right now?

The short answer is mortgage rates. Cotality's chief economist, Dr. Selma Hepp, points out that rates went from about 6% this spring to more than 6.6% since June, and that jump cooled buyer demand across the country. July home prices were essentially flat month over month nationally, when a normal pre-pandemic July would have added about 0.4%.

The slowdown is broad. Of the 100 largest U.S. metros, 46 posted a monthly price decline in July, up from 28 in June. Four states, Texas, Colorado, Washington, and Hawaii, are now negative year over year. Florida isn't negative, but at 0.8% it sits among the slowest-appreciating states in the country.

How does Hernando County compare to Tampa Bay and Florida?

Hernando County generally runs below the Tampa median, and right now it is also running softer on price. Redfin's July data shows a Hernando County median sale price of $319,064, down 4.7% from a year earlier, with 388 homes sold (up 10.7%), an average of 49 days on market (8 days faster than last July), and a sale-to-list ratio of 97.8%.

Compare that to the City of Tampa, where Redfin puts the July median at $474,757, up 5.5% over the three months ending in July, with homes selling in about 36 days. Statewide, Florida Realtors reported a July single-family median of $425,000, up 3.7%, with closed sales up 5.1% and 4.5 months of inventory.

So Spring Hill and Brooksville are roughly $100,000 cheaper than the state median and about $155,000 cheaper than Tampa, and prices here have adjusted more than in most of Florida. That gap is exactly why sales volume is up: buyers priced out closer to the bay are finding value in Hernando County.

A quick note on the numbers: Cotality's 0.8% for Florida is a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, while the Florida Realtors 3.7% is a change in the median price of what sold. They measure different things, and both point to the same conclusion: price growth in Florida has slowed sharply.

Is now a good time to buy in Spring Hill or Brooksville?

For buyers who plan to stay five years or more, this is one of the better windows we've seen since 2021. Prices have pulled back, homes are selling at about 97.8% of list, and 49 days on market means most sellers are open to a conversation. Rates are the headwind, but you can negotiate on price and closing costs today in a way you couldn't when homes drew ten offers in a weekend.

What buyers should do

1. Get fully underwritten (not just pre-qualified) so you can move fast when the right house hits the market, and lock a rate as soon as you're under contract.
2. Ask for seller concessions. With a 97.8% sale-to-list ratio and homes sitting 49 days, a request for a rate buydown or closing-cost credit is reasonable in Hernando County right now.
3. Shop the listings that have been on the market 30 days or more. Those sellers have already absorbed the price shift and are usually the most negotiable.
4. Compare new construction too. Florida builders filed 6,127 permits in July, and Tampa-area builders led the state, so there is inventory and often builder incentives to weigh against a resale.

What should Hernando County sellers do when prices are falling?

Falling prices are not the same as no buyers. July closings in Hernando County were up 10.7% from a year ago, which means homes that are priced to the current market are moving, and moving faster than last year. The sellers who struggle are the ones anchored to a 2022 or 2023 number.

What sellers should do

1. Price to the last 60 days of closed sales in your neighborhood, not to what your neighbor listed for in the spring. The market has shifted since then.
2. Budget for a concession. Expect a buyer to ask for help with closing costs or a rate buydown, and decide up front what you're willing to offer.
3. Make the home turnkey. With more choices, buyers skip over homes that need obvious work. Fresh paint, a serviced AC, and a clean roof inspection matter more now than a year ago.
4. Get a current valuation. Your number from 2024 is probably no longer accurate. Start here: https://www.ageofexp.com/homevalue

Will home prices keep falling in Hernando County?

Nobody can promise a direction, but the signals point to a leveling off rather than a slide. Dr. Hepp expects slower appreciation to gradually ease affordability pressure, especially if wages keep growing, and the fact that Hernando County sales rose nearly 11% while prices dipped shows demand is stepping in at these lower prices. Watch mortgage rates: if they come down from the 6.6% range, the buyers who have been waiting will come back quickly, and that usually stabilizes prices.

Frequently asked questions

Are home prices going down in Hernando County, Florida? Yes, modestly. Redfin's July 2026 data shows the Hernando County median sale price at $319,064, down 4.7% from a year earlier, while the number of homes sold rose 10.7%.

What is the median home price in Spring Hill and Brooksville right now? The countywide median for Hernando County was about $319,000 in July 2026. Spring Hill and Brooksville individually will vary by neighborhood, but both generally run below the Tampa median of roughly $475,000.

Is it a buyer's market in Tampa Bay in 2026? It's leaning that way in Hernando County, with homes selling at 97.8% of list and 49 days on market. Closer to the bay, Tampa proper is still seeing price gains, so conditions depend on where you're looking.

Why are Florida home prices rising slower than the rest of the country? Florida added a large amount of inventory and new construction after the pandemic boom, and higher mortgage rates and insurance costs have limited how much buyers can pay. Cotality puts Florida's annual appreciation at 0.8% versus 1.4% nationally.

Whether you're thinking about buying while prices are soft or wondering what your home would sell for in today's market, I'm happy to walk through the numbers for your specific neighborhood. Reach out any time.

James Adams The Adams Group Experience james@theadamsgroupexperience.com 352-587-9996 Find out what your home is worth: https://www.ageofexp.com/homevalue

Sources

1. "US home price insights — September 2026" (July 2026 data), Cotality, published September 8, 2026. https://www.cotality.com/insights/articles/us-home-price-insights-september-2026
2. "Hernando County, FL Housing Market" (July 2026 data), Redfin, accessed September 8, 2026. https://www.redfin.com/county/462/FL/Hernando-County/housing-market
3. "Tampa Housing Market" (July 2026 data), Redfin, accessed September 8, 2026. https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market
4. "Fla.'s Housing Market: Closed Sales and New Pending Sales Rise in July," Florida Realtors, August 17, 2026. https://www.floridarealtors.org/newsroom/flas-housing-market-closed-sales-and-new-pending-sales-rise-july
5. "Florida builders file 6,127 home permits in July," Florida Realtors, September 4, 2026. https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-builders-file-6127-home-permits-july

Notes on figures: The "roughly $100,000 cheaper than the state median" and "about $155,000 cheaper than Tampa" comparisons are my own subtraction of the Redfin Hernando median from the Florida Realtors and Redfin Tampa medians. The Tampa 5.5% figure is Redfin's three-month rolling change, not a single-month figure. The "since 2021" and "2022 or 2023 number" references are general market context, not sourced statistics.